Thursday, September 22, 2011

Week 3 NFL Picks!

Also on that cart, the broken dreams
of millions of fantasy owners
Ah, it's week 3 already. I can always tell it's week 3 of the NFL because the Mets have been officially eliminated and are depressingly playing out the string, the Yankees have clinched a playoff spot and both of my fantasy teams are winless (thanks Jamaal Charles!). But that's no reason I can't pretend to know more than Las Vegas' best sports books, right? Of course not. Week 3 is actually always a good week to bet on NFL games. It's the week Las Vegas will overreact to both bad teams and good teams and set lines abnormally high. Yes, we can tell certain teams like Kansas City and Seattle will be atrocious, but even terrible teams can sometimes cover spreads of 14 points or higher. If they couldn't, the world would spiral into chaos, right? (warning: I don't follow the news)

In addition, there's also money to made on matchups with teams that are both 1-1. A lot of these .500 teams (Arizona, Giants, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Cleveland) have beaten doormats . And others are quality teams that ran into a tough opponent on the road (New Orleans, Chicago, Atlanta, Philly), or suffered a classic letdown game after a big win (Baltimore). Timothy Hutton would say there's leverage to be had in these games. Does he say "we've got leverage now, boys!" in every episode? If not, he should.

When betting there's really only a few rules one needs to follow:
1) don't bet your favorite team (I violate this rule frequently) 
2) don't take crappy QBs on the road (unless he's on your fantasy team!)
3) Don't take Tavaris Jackson under any circumstances
4) Never forget rule 3

But enough with your rules, let's take a look at the games. I personally guarantee an over .500 winning percentage or this blog is FREE!

Jacksonville +3.5 at Carolina
The Jags have wisely benched Luke McCown, who was so terrible last week vs. the Jets that the Seahawks have asked if he is available in a trade. Meanwhile Cam Newton is playing so well, his dad has retroactively demanded even more money from Auburn. Carolina 27 Jags 13

FACT: Tom Brady molests goats
New England -9 at Buffalo
Oh Tom Brady, how I loathe you so. It's a good thing the devil owns the rights to your soul. Can you collect on that debt soon, Mr. Devil? This will be a shootout as those damned Chowder-eaters love running up the score, and padding Pretty Boy's stat line. The Bills are the early season feel good story, who everyone is hoping for, gosh gee by golly. They also barely beat the Raiders at home, and worse, gave up 35 points to a team QB'd by Jason Campbell. Their other win was over the Chiefs. Take the Pats and the points, but also remember to hate yourself for aligning with evil. Score: Pats 42 Bills 27  

Cincinnati -2.5 vs. San Fran
Here we have a line that doesn't make a lot of sense. The Bengals have been surprisingly feisty this year, while the Niners are their same old under-achieving selves. They beat a hapless Seahawk team and coughed up one at home against Dallas. They couldn't stop Tony Romo, who had several rib bones protruding from his jersey. Plus we have a West Coast team playing an early game in the east. Their digestive systems will not be in sync! Off topic, but anyone else notice that hotel room coffee is getting worse despite the advanced technology of the coffee makers? Thanks for nothing, Starbucks "East African Blend," you taste like shoe. This almost looks too easy for the Bengals, but I'm still taking them (remember, don't over-think). Cincy 24 San Fran 20 

The Browns will edge past the
Dolphins by a neck
Cleveland -2.5 vs. Miami
Peyton Hillis' neck is writing checks the rest of his body can't cash. It's already wider than his head, and it's gaining on his shoulder width. Be afraid. Miami's defensive secondary may as well be a system of well placed orange cones. Their players literally stand motionless and watch receivers whip by them. It's a sight to behold. Like doves being freed from their cages. Take the Cleve here, but don't watch this game. Cleveland 28 Miami 17

Tennessee -7 vs. Denver
This Titan team should not be favored by this much, even if they were playing Vanderbilt. And memo to Chris Johnson, way to earn that $53 million contract so far, buddy. Why don't you just light some money on fire everytime you are stopped for no gain to complete the deal. Take the points and pray to St. Tebow, the patron saint of underdogs covering the spread. Denver 21 - Tenn 20

Arizona -3 over Seattle
Tavaris looks off in the direction of
his last incomplete pass
You have to admire Seattle fans, they will show up and cheer for this hot mess, and even force the Cards into a couple of false starts. Well done, twelfth man. Take 'Zona and thank me later. Arizona 24 - Seattle 9

Green Bay -3.5 at Chicago 
I think the Pack got a little wake up call vs. Carolina last weekend. The Bears offensive line thinks blocking is just a stupid suggestion by "the man" trying to keep them down, and they should not be obligated to do it every down. Give the points and eat a block of cheese. Green Bay 31 - Bears 23

Houston +4 at New Orleans
This will be the game of the day, lots of scoring. Saints have one of the best home crowds, plus two road wins in a row is a lot to ask from this Houston team. Saints 38 - Houston 31

Troy Polamalu blames it on the rain
Indy +10.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Unfortunately, the entire nation will be subjected to this ugly game, as the Colts are awful, and America should be happy about this, it's about time. The Steelers are just annoying and whiny. "Why can't we cheap shot people anymore? Boo-hoo." Shut up and get a haircut, Polamalu. By the way, the Colts play 4 more times this year on national T.V. Can we really do nothing about this? Surprisingly, I'll still take the Colts to cover with a garbage TD in the fourth, as this is too many points to lay.
Pitt 21 Colts 13 

Detroit -3.5 at Minnesota
This is a bit of trap game, as everyone is on the Detroit bandwagon, and Minnesota has Donovan McNabb ritually spiking balls into the turf, even though it's not a 2 minute drill. Minnesota is not as bad as they appear, and Detroit not as good as they look, so I'll take the "minny" upset here (get it? that word play is free, remember). Minnesota 24 Detroit 21

Philly vs. Giants & Dallas vs. Washington (no line, off the board)
The good news is, we can't lose money on this game. That's practically a win! If Vick plays, take Philly ... Similarly, if Romo plays take Washington.

Atl. -1.5 at Tampa 
Interesting game as both teams are lucky to be 1-1, but Atlanta has played tougher teams, and has better talent, but hasn't really played well yet. Lock of the week: Atlanta 27 Tampa 20 

San Diego -14.5 vs. Kansas City 
The Chargers should win this by 49, but Norv Turner is involved, and the Turner Formula states subtract 36 points from the team he coaches. Chargers win, but don't cover the rivalry game. Also, Dexter McCluster will break a big play in this one at some point, and watch for a Chiefs kick return.
San Diego 34 - Chiefs 21.

Siciliano, giving you an earful
Baltimore -3.5 over St. Louis
Tangent time - has anyone noticed Andrew Siciliano's ears? It's unsettling when you are watching a game and they cut to him and those two airplane wings extending from his dome. I bet he can hear our thoughts with those things. He does a nice job though, and may God bless the Red Zone Channel, for it is glorious. Tough line here, Baltimore was terrible last week, as was St. Louis. When in doubt, take AFC over NFC. Baltimore 23 - St. Louis 16

Jets -3.5 at Oak
Reason #987,876,35 not to go
 to a Raider game
The Jets never play well in the Black Hole. But really, who can play well there? It's a vortex with zero gravity that disintegrates all matter. That makes it tough on QBs to complete passes. That extra half point on the spread is a spicy meatball. Too spicy, I think the Jets will win ugly in claaassic Jets fashion and will not cover this one. A Jet fan will also get the crap beaten out of him and tazed somewhere in this stadium. Jets 20 Raiders 17

Enjoy the games, everyone!

1 comment:

  1. Dave,

    Found this in my email as a response to your week 3 predictions. Seemed to come from the "cloud".

    I hear alot of subtle Seahawk bashing. Smells like anti team spirit. How quickly the scribes of this nation forget about what was possibly the greatest upset of all time when the sub .500 and somehow belittled Seattle team destroyed the mammoth Saints. I'm just sayin.


    Kurt Complain